WITH an open war seemingly brewing between UMNO’s “court cluster” and “Cabinet cluster”, an analyst said it was unlikely both factions will go all out to take on each other.
“Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Yaakob may be only a UMNO vice president but he is the head of the Government. That gives him a lot of power on deciding on the country’s trajectory.
“But instead of pushing his weight around, he wants to work with everyone and that’s why he is seen as slow. To me, Ismail Sabri is playing his cards right given the delicate situation,” Arunachala Research & Consultancy Sdn Bhd (ARRESCON principal consultant R Paneir Selvam told FocusM.
Last week, Zahid sacked Pasir Salak MP Datuk Seri Tajuddin Abdul Rahman from the UMNO supreme council.
While Zahid had refused to comment on why the action was taken, it was speculated that Tajuddin was axed as a “warning shot” to Ismail Sabri, who had been resisting calls by the “court cluster” to dissolve the Parliament.
Subsequently, former UMNO president Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak’s loyalist, Isham Jalil was appointed to replace Tajuddin.
Two days ago, Ismail Sabri decided to skip his party leadership meeting. Some have speculated that the Bera MP decided not to attend it as he knew he would be pressured to call for snap polls.
Touching on the matter, Paneir Selvam said that just because Zahid had sacked Tajuddin as a “warning sign” to Ismail Sabri, that does not mean the UMNO president can easily take action on Ismail Sabri given his status as prime minister.
“Tajuddin is a nobody while Ismail Sabri sits at Seri Perdana. Even if Zahid plans to sack Ismail Sabri, the latter can use his Government post to create a lot of problem for UMNO using the Registrar of Societies (ROS),” he noted.
On the likelihood of UMNO withdrawing support from Ismail Sabri, Paneir Selvam stated that even the likes of Zahid would know that it was akin to committing political suicide.
Elaborating on the point, he said that unlike mature democracies in the West where leaders often take differing sides due to issues, the same cannot be said about Malaysia.
“In Malaysia, MPs tend to support the sitting prime minister. So, if UMNO MPs withdraw support Ismail Sabri, I believe Pakatan Harapan and Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) will rally behind him.
“And I believe Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) and PAS will also support Ismail Sabri. At the end, UMNO is the party that will get isolated,” Paneir Selvam opined.
Balancing act
While UMNO can pressure Ismail Sabri to call for snap polls soon internally, he noted that is the only thing Zahid can do.
“Despite talks by several Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan leaders of not extending the memorandum of understanding (MoU), the reality is I think they will extend it further,” he claimed.
Paneir Selvam also opined that Ismail Sabri would try to delay the general election for two reasons; one is to focus on administering the country given the economic volatility and the other is to allow the law to take its course when it came to the “court cluster”.
“I see Ismail Sabri playing a delicate balance of not offending the ‘court cluster’ but trying to run the country at the same time.
“Besides, it will be politically suicidal for him to intervene in their cases as Ismail Sabri will face backlash domestically and internationally,” Paneir Selvam concluded. – June 26, 2022
