GLOBAL equities climbed yesterday, while the dollar dipped and oil rose as investors reduced their expectations of an aggressive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month and as US spending data beat forecasts.
Investors still face concerns that the world economy is headed for recession as central banks rush to get on top of galloping inflation, with steep interest rate rises seen this week in Canada, New Zealand, Chile, South Korea and the Philippines. Many are also still digesting an easing of Italy’s political crisis.
Fears of an economic downturn were fanned yesterday by Chinese data showing annualised 0.4% growth in the second quarter, the worst since at least 1992, excluding early 2020 when COVID-19 erupted.
The data reflect the colossal hit from widespread COVID-19 lockdowns. It sent Chinese shares 1.7% lower and dragged an Asian ex-Japan index to two-year lows.
Investors elsewhere looked on the bright side.
“The market is due for a short-term snapback and because we got better-than-expected results from Citigroup and retail sales that gave fundamental reasons for investors to be optimistic,” said CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall.
UBS strategist Rohan Khanna pointed to Thursday’s comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard favouring a 75 basis-point rate hike in July, rather than the 100 bps that some had been expecting, as good for yesterday trading. Both Bullard and Waller are considered policy hawks.
Meanwhile, Italy’s president rejected Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s resignation, heading off an immediate collapse of the government though the fate of the coalition remains in balance.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 1.79% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 1.46%. Wall Street’s main indexes traded higher as upbeat retail sales data allayed concerns about an economic slowdown, while shares of Citigroup surged after quarterly results.
Traders may be pressured overall, however, by companies’ second-quarter earnings, which so far have mostly underwhelmed.
Several European firms posted downbeat results on Friday, while US bank Wells Fargo reported a profits fall, with more money set aside to cover bad loans.
JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley on Thursday reported relatively weak results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.85% while the S&P 500 gained 1.61%, to 3,851.41, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.41%.
Recessionary set-up
Weakening growth has forced markets to tone down rate hike expectations. With Europe facing an energy supply crunch, traders have dialled back bets on European Central Bank policy tightening by year-end.
US markets are pencilling in rate cuts after March 2023.
“We moved rapidly from a stagflationary set-up to more of a recession-dominated one, and very strong inflation is adding to fears that the Fed will need to do more front-loaded tightening,” said Fidelity International global head of macro Salman Ahmed.
Treasury yields slipped two-three basis points across the curve while two-year yields held firmly above the 10-year segment, the curve inversion that often presages recession.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 3.1 basis points to 2.928%. The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 1.3 basis points at 3.133%.
In Europe, German 10-year yields fell 11 bps to 1.071%, the lowest since May 31. Italy’s borrowing costs slipped after Thursday’s 20 bps jump though its yield premium over Germany stayed near one-month highs.
The Fed officials’ comments knocked the dollar index off two-decade highs.
The dollar index fell 0.451%, with the euro up 0.59% to US$1.0075. The single currency has slid more than 1% this week, having hit parity against the greenback for the first time in 20 years.
The yen firmed 0.2% to 138.8, retreating from lows of almost 140 per dollar, levels last hit in 1998.
The growth worries weighed on commodities, with copper prices set for their worst weekly loss in more than two years and US crude recently rose 1.79% to US$97.49 per barrel while Brent was at US$101.05, up 1.97% on the day. – July 16, 2022
