POLLSTER Ilham Centre has outlined three decisive elements or key variables to determine the outcome of today’s six state elections, namely (i) voter turnout, (ii) the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional (PH-BN) vote transferability, and (iii) youth vote swing.
One interesting observation in Ilham Centre’s survey is that there are two different scenarios between the attitudes of UMNO-BN and PH party supporters with PH supporters having no qualms about transferring their votes in state constituencies contested by BN.
“However, the same cannot be said about UMNO members or BN supporters who may be reluctant to support PH with 27% and above having stated that it was difficult for them to endorse the PH logo because of the DAP factor,” deduced the pollster in its pre-election day prediction.
Another status quo situation observed by Ilham Centre is that despite Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim “having aggressively met up with youngsters at various campuses”, the trend of young people in the 18 to 25 age group voting in favour of PN is likely to be retained with PH facing an uphill challenge to attract support from this segment.
According to figures from the Election Commission, there will be 4.9 million ‘young’ voters in the 18 to 39 age group among today’s 9.78 million eligible voters.
Delving further into the mentality of UMNO members, Ilham Centre said from a psychological standpoint, these people will find it odd that the BN logo had disappeared in state assembly seats contested by PH.
“In addition, they are also afraid of being chastised by PAS supporters that UMNO-BN people are now defending DAP-PH,” observed the pollsters.
“According to our data, around 27%-58% of UMNO voters in GE15 would switch side by voting for PN in state polls on Aug 12 (today). The momentum of the Malay-Muslim wave during GE15 is still seen as continuing.”
For the record, PN obtained 52% of Malay votes during GE15, followed by BN (32%) and PH (15%).
“Although PH-UMNO cooperation will reduce the split in Malay votes compared to GE15 through two-cornered competition, this is still seen as not helping the unity government,” projected Ilham Centre.
“To provide context, UMNO lost in all Malay majority parliamentary seats in Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu, Penang and Selangor but excelled in Negeri Sembilan in GE15.” – Aug 12, 2023
Main pic caption: Bernama
