MAYBANK Research estimates robust Shopee and Grab GMV growth of 18% and 17% year-on-year (YoY), respectively, in quarter four of 2024 (4Q24).
This is underpinned by relatively robust macro and stable competition which in turn favours large operators.
“On the monetisation front, we see divergent trends with Shopee raising seller take-rates while Grab’s services are becoming affordable relative to its competitors,” said Maybank in a recent report.
Maybank see these as steps in the right direction as:
1) E-commerce seller take-rates in ASEAN are on the lower side versus the global average.
2) Maybank earlier flagged supply/demand pressure for Grab services which it is now addressing which in turn should help to sustain gross merchandise value growth.
“In 4Q, we expect slight margin pressure in SE’s gaming and Grab’s mobility and fintech businesses. However, we see this as tactical and seasonal in nature and as such don’t see it as a cause of concern. We maintain our BUYs on SE and Grab with SE preferred over Grab,” said Maybank.
Maybank estimated Shopee GMV to grow at 18% YoY/9% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in 4Q24. Robust growth is underpinned by relatively healthy spending, rational competition and stable forex.
Factoring a full quarter impact of take-rate increases in second half of 2024 (2H24) as well as higher Ad contribution, we expect Shopee revenues to grow 35% YoY/10% QoQ.
“We expect Shopee momentum to have an even bigger transmission effect on DFS services where we expect revenues to grow 42% YoY although we do see slight contraction in loans outstanding owing to forex,” said Maybank.
Earnings before interest, depreciation and amortisation to decline 5% QoQ due to seasonality as well as upfront marketing cost linked to Delta Force and NFS launches.
Similar to last year, Maybank sees risk of goodwill impairment bookings in 4Q24.
“Looking forward, we see Shopee competition remaining relatively stable which in turn should pave the way for commission rate hikes, higher Ads penetration and superior DFS growth,” said Maybank.
Maybank estimates Grab on-demand GMV to grow 17% YoY, an acceleration versus quarter three growth of 15% YoY.
This is helped by faster growth in food delivery GMV. Expect mobility GMV to remain firm at 20% YoY in 4Q.
“Based on our mobility pricing tracker, we see Grab premium vs. Gojek/Tada is narrowing in Singapore while in Indonesia Grab is now at a discount to Gojek,” said Maybank.
As such, Maybank believes Grab is able to address affordability concerns/driver supply but still holding GMV growth with relative margin stability.
Expect fintech revenue momentum to sustain in 4Q24 (up 33% YoY), but expect losses to widen slightly owing to upfront provisioning cost as Grab underwrites long-tenured loans. —Jan 3, 2025
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