The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) reported a TIV of 68,007 units in May, with total production volume (TPV) reaching 66k units (-12% YoY).
The stronger sequential performance was largely expected, given the more working days post Aidil Fitri festivity.
As the sector continues to face challenges amid price competition and the softening of overall consumer sentiment, we maintain our NEUTRAL call, for now.
May TIV came in at 68k units (+12% MoM, -3% YoY), bringing 5M25 TIV to 316,722 units (-5% YoY). The MoM recovery was as expected given the higher number of working days vs April and delivery of vehicles booked in 1Q25.
The pick-up in sales volume was mainly driven by the major marques, namely Honda (+38% MoM), Perodua (+15% MoM), and Proton (+5% MoM).
Chinese car maker Chery also saw an increase of +18% MoM (mainly contributed by Jaecoo), while BYD recorded a slightly modest growth of +6% MoM.
Mazda sales volume, meanwhile, slipped 14% MoM. The national carmakers’ TIV share rose to 64% in YTD-May 2025 from 62% in 2024.
TPV saw a 17% MoM uptick (-12% YoY) in May, in line with the increase in TIV numbers.
The TPV’s MoM increase was mainly contributed by Proton (+33%), Perodua (+16%), and Toyota (+14%), but slightly offset by Honda (-6%).
Moving forward, we expect to see a MoM output decrease in June, leading to an overall QoQ decline in 2Q25.
This is largely due to seasonal plant shutdowns by major automakers during the Aidil Fitri (April) and Aidil Adha (June) holiday periods.
Tesla ended Proton’s run as the top-selling EV brand in May. Based on Road Transport Department (JPJ) figures – which include non-MAA members – while BYD still leads the EV market adoption, Tesla Model Y recorded the highest units registered (985 units) in May while e.MAS 7 came second (862 units).
Total EV registrations rose 69% YoY in May to 4,152 units, bringing YTD-May 2025 registrations to 13.9k units (+59% YoY), making up 4.1% of total cars registered, vs 2.5% in 2024.
“While we expect EV numbers to continue picking up in the coming months, growth is likely to remain moderate due to structural headwinds – high pricing & limited availability of charging infrastructure. As such, EVs are unlikely to influence overall TIV in the near term,” said RHB.
Remain NEUTRAL, 5M25 TIV largely in line with our 2025 forecast of 730k units, making up 43% of full-year assumptions.
We expect 2Q25 to soften QoQ on the back of scheduled factory maintenance shutdowns by major marques.
We remain wary of the sector’s outlook however, due to the intense price competition in the non-national segment and lack of catalysts to boost sales and earnings for the sector.
Additionally, the impending subsidy rationalisation and the implementation of expanded sales & service tax (SST) may dampen overall consumer sentiment. Hence, we maintain our sector rating, with Sime Darby (SIME) as our sole BUY call.
Key downside risks include softer-than-expected orders and deliveries, and resurgent supply chain issues. The opposite represents upside risks. —June 23, 2025
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