BARISAN Nasional’s (BN) victory in the Johor election, where it secured 48 of the state assembly’s 56 seats, has prompted some to conclude that the coalition is building unstoppable momentum ahead of the 16th General Election (GE16).
History, however, suggests otherwise.
Malaysia’s electoral record shows that state elections, by-elections and general elections often produce very different outcomes. While Johor is an important political barometer, it should not be mistaken for a forecast of what lies ahead.
We only need to look back four years. Following convincing victories in the Malacca state election in November 2021 and the Johor state election in March 2022, many believed BN was on course to reclaim Putrajaya comfortably.
Instead, GE15 in November 2022 produced a very different outcome. BN won only 30 of the 222 parliamentary seats, while Malaysia’s first unity government was formed under Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
The lesson is not unique to recent history. Between the 2004 and 2008 general elections, BN won every parliamentary by-election it contested. Yet in 2008, it lost its two-thirds parliamentary majority for the first time since 1969, while the opposition captured five state governments.
These examples do not diminish Johor’s significance. Rather, they remind us that every election is fought under different circumstances. Candidate selection, turnout, local issues and political alliances all influence the final result.
Johor itself had several unique dynamics. Perikatan Nasional, particularly PAS, did not contest several constituencies, while multi-cornered contests affected outcomes elsewhere.
In Perling, for example, Bersama secured more votes than the margin by which DAP lost the seat. While it would be simplistic to assume those votes would otherwise have gone to DAP, the result illustrates how electoral outcomes often hinge on multiple factors rather than a single trend.
From my own experience campaigning for DAP’s Skudai candidate Kartiyaini Jeyapalan, I was reminded that grassroots organisation, credible candidates and sustained engagement still matter.
Skudai was never an easy seat. Following the departure of the previous DAP representative, Kartiyaini faced the challenge of defending the constituency in her electoral debut. She prevailed after a disciplined campaign supported by local members, volunteers and party workers from several states.
Despite retaining Skudai, the overall verdict in Johor should prompt honest reflection within both DAP and Pakatan Harapan.
There appears to be a growing gap between what many voters expect from PH and what they perceive the coalition to be delivering. Whether those perceptions are entirely fair is beside the point. They deserve serious attention.
Bread-and-butter concerns such as the cost of living, the cost of doing business, governance, education and equal opportunities continue to resonate with voters, particularly among the Chinese community, whose support should never be taken for granted.
Equally important is whether our communication remains effective. Are we addressing the issues that concern voters today, or relying too heavily on messages that resonated in previous elections but no longer carry the same weight?
These are difficult questions, but they demand honest answers.
The upcoming DAP National Congress on Aug 16 provides an opportunity not simply to analyse the Johor result, but to better understand changing voter expectations and determine how the party can reconnect with the electorate ahead of GE16.
Johor should neither trigger panic nor encourage complacency. Instead, it should sharpen our sense of urgency and remind us that public trust is never permanent.
It must be earned continuously through credible leadership, effective governance and sustained engagement with the people. ‒ July 14, 2026
Ben Fong Kok Seng is the DAP Federal Territory Kuala Lumpur Treasurer.
The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Focus Malaysia.
Main image: Bernama
