PARTI Bangsa Malaysia (PBM) sole lawmaker Larry Sng Wei Shien is spot on that bright prospect of the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional (BN-PN) pact being capable of winning a simple majority in the 16th General Election (GE16) “does present DANGER for Sabah and Sarawak”.
Academically inclined political commentator Prof James Chin who used to believe that the Malay/Muslim vote would stay fractured going into GE16 “by being split into three ways” now sees his belief “crumbling” after the Johor and Negeri Sembilan (N9) state elections.
“If UMNO and PAS lock arms for GE16, PH will be driven back into its urban fortresses,” observed the inaugural director of the Asia Institute at the University of Tasmania in a recent Facebook post.
“It’ll be powerless to stop the Malay Tsunami that is already forming. I’m even more pessimistic than YB Larry.”
According to Chin, a combined BN-PN bloc “already commands roughly 105 seats based on current numbers (including the new voters) and assuming zero leakage”.
“They need only one more partner able to deliver at least 15 seats. Not seven given sitting on a bare 112 is suicide. Stability demands 120 seats or more,” asserted the senior research associate at Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman’s (UTAR) Tun Tan Cheng Lock Centre for Social and Policy Studies (TCLI).
“The question that should keep every strategist awake at night is what will GPS (Gabungan Parti Sarawak) and GRS (Gabungan Rakyat Sabah) do when that offer arrives?”
Losing “kingmakers” stature
Chin who is a Sarawakian contended that “I really need to think deeply and stare unflinchingly at the consequences that are racing towards Sabah and Sarawak” should such prospect been laid down on the table.
“This is a scary future. Putrajaya can and will ignore all MA63 (Malaysia Agreement 1963) rights if the power to be doesn’t really need Sabah and Sarawak,” rued the senior fellow at the Jeffrey Cheah Institute on Southeast Asia in Malaysia.
They’ll give token acknowledgement of MA63 but the Sabah 40% will be dead, more PETRONAS concessions will be dead, 35% parliament seats dead, negotiations over returning more key administrative powers will be dead, and worse of all, they’ll no longer respect what the CM (Chief Minister) of Sabah or the Premier of Sarawak says.
Under this lot who think they can rule without you, MA63 will be just another paper for PR (public relations) and NATO (no action, talk only). I kid you not. This is how politics is played at the highest level.
I need to drink harder. Eat more bak kut teh and laksa.”
Earlier, Sng who is also Julau MP and PBM president predicted that if the BN-PN alliance make headway in GE16, the ruling GPS and GRS state coalitions would no longer be kingmakers, particularly in the event of a hung Parliament.
The former Sarawak PKR chief further said that based on the current trajectory, the BN-PN pact could make a clean sweep of all state elections in West Malaysia except for Penang.
“The total combined seats won by BN and PN in 2022 was 104. The magic number to form government is 112. Only eight additional parliamentary seats needed,” justified Sng in s FB post.
Discounting the political alignment of East Malaysian parties from Sabah and Sarawak, I believe that based on the current trajectory, it’s highly likely that BN-PN will easily form the simple majority post GE16.
That would also mean that GPS and GRS will no longer play the role of kingmaker. – Aug 3, 2026
