JAKARTA: Indonesian exports and imports may have shrunk at a slower pace last month, a poll showed on Monday, as the country and its main trade partners lifted some coronavirus-induced restrictions on economic activity.
However, the trade data is expected to reinforce expectations of poor performance by Southeast Asia’s largest economy in the second quarter due to the impact of the pandemic.
The country’s central bank is due to review monetary policy on Thursday, a day after the data is due.
The median forecast from 13 analysts surveyed was for a yearly drop of 12.26% in shipments from the resource-rich country in June, compared with May’s 28.95% fall.
Aldian Taloputra, a Jakarta-based economist with Standard Chartered who forecast a 2.4% annual growth for June exports, said the improvement was due to a low base effect as there were long domestic holidays at the start of June 2019.
He also listed “likely improved global demand” with major trading partners reporting higher purchasing managers’ index and bigger overseas coal sales as his main reasons.
The pace of fall in imports may have also moderated to 18.70% last month, compared with 42.2% plunge in May, according to the poll.
Indonesia began lifting movement curbs in early June.
The country’s trade surplus likely shrank to US$1.11 bil (RM4.74 bil) in June from US$2.09 bil a month prior, the median analysis showed. – July 13, 2020, Reuters
