THE Malaysian Aviation Commission (MAVCOM) revised its forecast downward for 2021 passenger traffic after taking into consideration a lower load factor and a longer period of seat capacity recovery by airlines.
The commission now expects passenger traffic to contract by between 77% year-on-year (yoy) and 80.2% yoy which translates to between 5.3 million and 6.1 million passengers, significantly lower compared to the 18.9 million to 20.6 million passengers previously forecasted in April 2021.
“The aviation industry continues to be the hardest hit industry by the COVID-19 pandemic,” commented MAVCOM’s executive chairman Datuk Seri Saripuddin Kasim in the commission’s ninth edition of its Waypoint industry report.
“While future trends indicate potential increase in domestic travel as the nation moves closer to reaching herd immunity and travel restrictions are relaxed for fully vaccinated passengers, the recovery rate of the sector remains uncertain.”
Following the implementation of the movement control orders (MCOs) between 4Q 2020 and 2Q 2021, total passenger traffic in 2Q 2021 stood at 1.3 million, the lowest it has been since 2Q 2020 which saw 800,000 passengers.
This represents a growth of 62% yoy due to a low base effect. Despite the drop in passenger traffic, MAVCOM expects an increase in domestic, short-haul travel with the relaxation of movement restrictions for fully vaccinated passengers.
The bright spark, however, lies in total cargo volume which expanded by 80.4% yoy in 2Q 2021 due to high demand for vaccines, medical equipment, personal protective equipment, electrical and electronic (E&E) components as well as the solid growth seen in e-commerce.
In this regard, MAVCOM anticipates air cargo traffic in 2021 to expand by between 26.5% yoy and 28.2% yoy, thus recovering to pre-crisis levels.
On this note, Malaysia’s main cargo players have undertaken route expansions that may indicate a further increase in Malaysia’s cargo volume in the near future. Raya Airways and World Cargo Airline (WCA) have upgraded their licences from air service permits (ASPs) to air service licences (ASLs).
As of June 30, MAVCOM approved 100% of the 34 air traffic rights (ATR) applications received in 1H 2021, reflecting an increase of 25.9% yoy from 27 ATR applications in 1H 2020.
International routes received 26 ATR allocations with the largest share of ATR in 1H 2021 allocated for routes to China at 38.2%.
This was followed by allocations to domestic routes and the ASEAN region at 23.5% each. 1H 2021 also marked the second consecutive half without expiry of any airline’s ATR portfolio following MAVCOM’s decision to ease the condition which automatically revokes unutilised ATRs within six months from the date of the ATR approval. – Aug 26, 2021
