RECENT analyses of the difficulty of Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) forming a multi-racial government in the coming state polls in Penang are flawed on a number of grounds.
It was argued that that there are high chances that all Malay majority seats might fall into the hands of the Perikatan Nasioanl (PN) coalition.
It was even argued that PH and BN might not be able to hold on to power in Penang which is supposed to be the political fortress of PH.
It has to be pointed out that chances of PN winning holds good in only seats that have clear Malay majority.
In this respect, the chances of PN winning is very slim in racially mixed constituencies even if the Malays are simple majority.
If Malays make up more than 70% of the electorate, the chances of PN winning is high. The higher the Malay voters, the higher the chances for PN’s victory.
However, in state constituencies that have mixed races, PN might not stand the chances of winning given the voting preferences of the non-Malay voters.
PN victory in Malay majority constituencies are predicated on the notion that Malay support is overwhelmingly pro-PN.
But this might not be the case. That PN is able to sweep more than 50% of Malay votes might not be repeated in the coming state elections, particularly in Penang.
Even if the PH-BN combination is weak in garnering Malay support, it is estimated that good governance in Penang might entice more Malay support for the Malay-based parties such as PKR, Amanah and UMNO.
No easy task
The prediction that PN might simply walkover in the Malay majority areas might not be true especially under the changed political, social and psychological circumstances.
The earlier political scene that prevailed just before the parliamentary elections last year might not be the same.
It is not that PN had lost Malay support but its image of being clean and holier than thou has diminished as result of corruption charges levelled at some leaders of the Bersatu party.
Timing is of essence in elections. What happened during the parliamentary elections might be repeated in the coming state elections.
Analysts who predicted the PN carrying all the Malay majority seats forget the power of incumbency at both the national and state levels.
In the last general elections, incumbency might have assisted the PH or the PN parties at the state levels. But this time around, there might be a double whammy for the PN at both the federal and state levels especially states under the PH coalition.
Given this, it might not be easy for the PN to pull Malay support in states like Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan. The same thing could be said for the PN ascendancy in Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan.
The bandwagon effect might have influenced political analysts as to their bias towards PN and why they expect this coalition to do well in Penang.
However, in their zeal to predict the positive outcome for PN, they fail to take into account the effect of good governance on the Malay electorate.
A recent study of Malay voters in Penang indicates that while these voters might have difficulty with the DAP, they, however, have no problem with the Penang state government headed by the DAP.
Malays are rational people
Slightly more than 50% of Malay voters have no difficulty with the DAP-led Penang state government.
For the Malays, the race and religion narratives are important. Such narratives might be the tipping point of their ultimate preferences when it comes to voting. But at the same time, Malay voters are very rational.
They are in position to separate the fact from the fiction. For the B40 group, bread and butter issues are equally salient in political and social contexts where they face no imagined threats.
This illustrates that Malay voters might have inherent dislike for DAP but they might not be prejudiced against the Penang state government in terms of delivery of services.
Undifferentiated perspective on the Malay voters in Penang might be the reason why political analysts are continuing to regurgitate the old narrative that they might blindly cast their vote in favour of PN to the extent the Penang incumbent government might be toppled.
As I have argued, examining the political circumstances of the last elections, the changed scenario that might operate before the coming state elections, the corruption charges against certain PN leaders, the power of incumbency and not the least the rationality of Malay voters might ultimately be conducive to the victory of PH-BN (UMNO) in Penang. – April 27, 2023
Prof Ramasamy Palanisamy is the DAP state assemblyman for Perai. He is also Deputy Chief Minister II of Penang.
The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Focus Malaysia.
