FORMER prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s new Malay-only coalition may not bag the Malay vote in the upcoming elections, but it will give Pakatan Harapan (Pakatan) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) a run for their money, an analyst said.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan said bringing together four Bumiputera-interest political parties under the Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA) umbrella was a “brilliant” strategy by the Parti Pejuang Tanah Air (Pejuang) chairman.
The four parties are Pejuang, Parti Barisan Jemaah Islamiah Se-Malaysia (Berjasa), Parti Bumiputera Perkasa Malaysia (Putra) and National Indian Muslim Alliance Party (Iman).
“Mahathir saw how successful Muafakat Nasional (MN) was, where PAS and UMNO basically used Pakatan as their scapegoat,” Azmi told FocusM.
“So, he decided to do the same thing with GTA, where UMNO is used as a scapegoat to attract the Malay-Muslim vote in the 15th General Elections (GE15).”
Azmi added that GTA has a good chance of replacing MN, which he said was a “goner”.
However, he noted that while UMNO and PAS have a strong influence on the Malay voters, Pejuang, Berjasa, Putra and Iman do not.
“On paper, it is a very good idea, filling up the vacuum left behind by MN. But since the parties that form GTA are very questionable, I don’t think GTA will negatively impact UMNO.”
However, Azmi said GTA will negatively impact Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM), PN (comprising PAS and PPBM) and Pakatan.
“Since these are all opposition parties, most likely the opposition vote will be divided.”
“Fight for all Malaysians”
Mahathir announced the formation of the GTA on Thursday (Aug 4), which also comprises non-governmental organisations (NGOs), academics and professionals apart from the four political parties.
Mahathir said the Malay-Muslim-centric movement, aimed at changing the Government and going up against UMNO in GE15, will “fight for all Malaysians” and not just the Malays.
Meanwhile, Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun said likely only Mahathir and his son, former Kedah menteri besar Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir, will retain their seats in GE15.
As for the other candidates contesting under the GTA umbrella, which are “largely mosquito parties people hardly hear of”, Oh said: “Good luck”.
He added that the formation of the GTA was to make Mahathir “feel like he is still relevant and in control”, likely since Pakatan refuses to make him their prime minister candidate again and he will never work with UMNO.
Oh also noted that while PPBM was able to retain about 20% of the Malay vote during the recent Melaka and Johor state polls, how that level of support would translate into actual seats would take some “shrewd” seat allocation arrangements.
Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) senior lecturer Prof Lee Kuok Tiung, on the other hand, said it was “understandable” why GTA was appealing to the Malay-Muslims.
This is because of the history of political parties in Malaysia playing the race and religion card.
As for GTA’s chances during GE15, Lee said mixed seats would be an issue, especially after the minimum voting age was reduced to 18 and automatic voter registration kicked in.
It is likely that voters in such constituencies will not support parties that only advocate for the rights of a single race or religion, which can be seen as racist or discriminatory.
Most of the urban and semi-urban seats have turned into multi-racial seats, Lee added, noting that there are 105 such seats in the peninsula. – Aug 7, 2022
Main photo credit: Utusan
