AS Malaysia focuses on the N48 Ayer Kuning by-election scheduled for April 26, the implications extend beyond the mere acquisition of a single seat in the Perak state assembly; they encompass the trajectory of Malaysia’s political landscape.
This electoral contest involves Barisan Nasional (BN), Perikatan Nasional (PN), and Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM), and it is exposing significant undercurrents of discontent particularly among Chinese and Indian voters who may play a pivotal role as kingmakers in this competitive three-way contest.
When local issues reflect national malaise
The electoral district of Ayer Kuning stands out due to its demographic composition, with a Malay majority surpassing 55%.
Additionally, the district is home to a significant Chinese and Indian population, which accounts for over 35% of the total populace, highlighting Malaysia’s diverse racial makeup.
In this political context, both Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) are competing for the Malay vote by nominating candidates who are Malay-Muslim.
Meanwhile, many non-Malay voters are increasingly feeling marginalised. The debate over pig farms in Ayer Kuning has fuelled dissatisfaction among Chinese voters who believe that the focus on this issue favours religious sensitivities at the expense of fair economic treatment.
This scenario draws parallels to the controversy surrounding durian orchards in Raub, where small-scale Chinese farmers were perceived as victims of powerful corporate entities.
Although that event occurred in Pahang, the recurring themes of economic insecurity, lack of government responsiveness, and marginalisation resonate with Chinese voters in various constituencies.
For Indian voters, faith and fairness matter
The Indian community in Ayer Kuning is observing the situation with great interest. Recent disputes regarding ‘kuil haram’ (illegal temples) and the inaction towards those who disrespect Hinduism have exacerbated tensions between Indian voters and mainstream political coalitions.
The fact that both candidates from PH-backed BN and PN are Malay-Muslim with pronounced religious affiliations raises alarms about interfaith sensitivity.
For many Indian voters, the lack of action or representation has become increasingly noticeable. In this scenario, Bawani Kaniapan, who represents PSM, distinguishes herself not only due to her identity as an Indian woman but also because of her unwavering commitment to social justice and minority rights.
Her candidacy presents a viable option for voters who are weary of superficial gestures and are seeking authentic representation.
PSM: From fringe to protest vote
Despite the PSM’s historical lack of electoral success, the current political climate in Ayer Kuning may be advantageous for the party.
Growing dissatisfaction with both the unity government and opposition coalitions could transform PSM into a platform for protest, particularly among younger, progressive, and disenchanted voters.
The party’s secular and class-oriented ideology may finally resonate with the electorate. It addresses the concerns of those marginalised by Malaysia’s ethnic agreements, those frustrated by the rising cost of living, and those weary of communal politics.
Even if PSM does not secure victory, a significant performance would convey a powerful message: Malaysians are prepared for a change.
Youth, apathy, and mobilisation
The issue of voter turnout continues to be a major concern.
The timing of the upcoming by-election, which is set to occur shortly after the Hari Raya festivities and right after the Qing Ming Festival in early April, may negatively impact participation rates among outstation voters from the Chinese and Indian communities.
This situation, along with a general sense of political weariness, could lead to a decline in voter engagement.
However, there is a significant chance for candidates like Bawani to rally younger voters by effectively using social media, promoting direct engagement, and focusing campaigns on essential values.
Generic slogans will not be enough; this is a critical juncture that requires clarity, authenticity, and in-depth discussions about policy matters.
A wake-up call to the establishment
Irrespective of the outcome, the Ayer Kuning by-election has delivered a powerful message. The electorate is growing increasingly dissatisfied.
Voters of Chinese and Indian heritage, who have often been seen as secondary in predominantly Malay areas, are now making it clear that they cannot be ignored.
Mainstream political parties must acknowledge that simply relying on coalition numbers is not enough for effective governance.
A genuine commitment to inclusivity, authenticity, and meaningful reform is crucial not only for winning elections but also for restoring public confidence.
This by-election is more than just about securing a seat in Perak; it signifies a critical juncture for our national development.
Can we rise above racial and religious divisions to foster a political environment that respects every Malaysian?
On April 26, the voters of Ayer Kuning will cast their votes, and the entire nation should pay close attention.
The Ayer Kuning by-election may act as a precursor for Malaysia’s forthcoming 16th General Election (GE16).
While it pertains to a single seat, the underlying dynamics reveal significant national transformations: diminishing confidence in established coalitions, increasing ethnic dissatisfaction, and a heightened interest in alternative political forces.
Should non-Malay voters shift towards protest candidates such as PSM, coupled with a low turnout among the youth, it would reflect a broader disillusionment with conventional politics.
More importantly, this election will assess the effectiveness of the unity government’s cross-coalition cooperation.
Although the outcomes will not definitively forecast GE16, they will provide insights into the changing priorities of the electorate and their readiness for political change. – April 24, 2025
R. Paneir Selvam is the principal consultant of Arunachala Research & Consultancy Sdn Bhd, a think tank specialising in strategic national and geopolitical matters.
The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Focus Malaysia.
Main image: Harian Metro
