Be wise to never trust wholesomely target price or market prediction by analysts

VETERAN business journalist and blogger Datuk A. Kadir Jasin has hit out at the slew of overly optimistic projection of the Malaysian stock market and the ringgit exchange rate as 2023 is drawing to a close.

Referring to the latest market view by Capital Dynamics Sdn Bhd managing director Tan Teng Boo that the Malaysian stock market will return to strength soon, Kadir described such view as merely “talking up the market” or to inject enthusiasm in the market.

“I wonder if market view of this veteran analyst can become a reality or if he is a fortune teller with magical binoculars. Likewise, MIDF Research had on Oct 3 predicted that our ringgit would strengthen to close at RM4.30 by end-2023,” penned the national journalism laureate on his Facebook page.

“It’s not that I don’t want stocks on Bursa Malaysia to spike out of the blue. I’m really looking forward to it.”

Notwithstanding his high hopes of seeing the local bourse soar again, Kadir nevertheless is sceptical of Tan’s prediction given the FBM KLCI index has fallen 53 points or 3.54% since the beginning of this year. In fact, the FBM KLCI further eased 1.91 points to close at 1,442.51 yesterday (Oct 26).

“As a depositor of the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) and the mutual fund schemes of Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) and Amanah Raya Bhd (PNB), I can consider myself to have profited if indeed Bursa Malaysia meleTop (literally ‘explodes’),” reckoned the former editor-in-chief of mainstream New Straits Times.

“After all, the stock market is one of the places where these investment funds invest in search of profit.”

But that could be wishful thinking considering that until end-April 2023, Bursa Malaysia’s benchmark FBM KLCI index was the second worst performer in Asia after Thailand. Since then, the index has been up and down or flat.

“Sorry if I have to say that this happened in the era of Madani Malaysia which featured a Finance Minister who was once labelled as the ‘Best Finance Minister in Asia’. But that was before,” teased the former Bersatu supreme council member who has since pledged his allegiance to Pakatan Harapan (PH).

“If we look back at the five-year period from Jan 1, 2019, Bursa Malaysia only rose once to 1,707.73 points on Feb 1, 2019 when Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad (who is known as Atok to Madani supporters) was the prime minister (PM) of the then PH government.”

Added Kadir: “I hope all the spells by the stock market and currency shamans or fortune tellers shall become a reality so that we can all live happily ever after.

“But just a word of caution in that if your pocket is not deep enough, please stay away from the turbulent stock market lest you get your finger burnt or ended up being a victim of scam.” – Oct 27, 2023

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