By Muhammad Mehedi Masud
HISTORY reminds us that every 100 years the world has gone through a massive pandemic – the plague in 1720, cholera in 1820, the Spanish flu in 1920 and the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.
However, the global spread of the coronavirus is more precarious due to modern globalisation. Malaysia detected its first Covid-19 cases on Jan 25, with the confirmed cases now standing at 5,389 with 89 deaths.
While the virus has, undoubtedly, had a negative impact on the economy and people’s lives, it is unexpectedly contributing to positive externalities on the environment. An almost global lockdown has managed to decouple the problem of economic growth and emissions that no policy intervention has been able to do.
A drastic drop in automobile traffic volume and mass industrial production has partially improved air quality and considerably reduced carbon dioxide emissions worldwide. It appears, in the short term at least, people are able to breathe better.
There is a saying that the way we behave with nature is the same way nature will return its behaviour. However, it is too early to have an accurate prediction of the impact of coronavirus on climate change.
But, a fundamental question remains: Will Covid-19 help us to prematurely achieve the global climate goals?
The different corners of the world are experiencing a significant reduction in carbon dioxide and nitrogen dioxide emissions levels. As for the level of air pollution in China, a 25% reduction in such emissions was registered, as well as a 40% drop in the use of coal.
According to NASA, nitrogen dioxide levels across eastern and central China have been 10%-30% lower than normal. Meanwhile, more than 60% decrease in nitrogen dioxide levels and 20%-30% decline in overall air pollution levels were recorded in Paris. New York is experiencing a 50% reduction in air pollution compared to the previous year.
This scenario might compel global leaders to think through how to achieve, ahead of time, the historic Paris agreement which aims to limit global warming to “well below” two degrees Celsius.
However, despite this lesson precipitated by the Covid-19 crisis, this is certainly not a right way to think of how to achieve the Paris agreement targets. This is because there are clear solutions that would enable us to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and meet the climate targets that 195 nations have agreed on.
The most obvious solutions are to shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, which does not halt economic activities and harm human lives, unlike the current lockdown. Global production methods must maintain a balance of environmental and economic interests. Governments should concentrate on developing a new business model which is a carbon-neutral and nature-friendly production system.
This is particularly imperative because after the pandemic, many economists are predicting a sharp global recession. This recession could lead the entire world to accelerate its business activities for economic recovery.
This is worrisome because if global leaders start their business as usual, then the world could experience the same situation as the case after the financial crisis of 2008-09, where the whole world observed a provisional reduction in emissions of 1.3%, but as the economy recovered in 2010, emission-levels went on to a record high.
Undoubtedly, this pandemic is a much more urgent issue than the climate change crisis. However, the climate change crisis is also a global emergency that silently kills many lives and destabilises economic activities, particularly in developing countries.
Therefore, in the name of economic recovery, if we put the issue of climate change on the backburner, it will certainly impede the achievement of global climate goals by 2030. World leaders need to realise that if we fail to resolve the climate change crisis, it could lead to a situation that is as serious as the coronavirus pandemic. – April 21, 2020
Dr Muhammad Mehedi Masud is Senior Lecturer at the Department of Development Studies, Faculty of Economics & Administration, University of Malaya.
