THE Johor state election has just concluded with a big thud for the forces of reform just as it did after the Melaka state election.
I have been reading analysis upon analysis then and now, and somehow I must say I am puzzled why no one seemed to see why the results are such.
But then it is no surprise, wisdom is not conventional. Most people, especially the elite class of commentators who de-cry the Bangsar Bubble, as if they are not of it, what more if they have been invested in the fortunes of political elites and dynasties and their narrative over decades now, cannot bring themselves to accept the reality on the ground.
As for me, I have lived amongst our people in the forests and see their pain and hurt. I have gone to kampungs and sat with makciks and pak ciks, whilst my fellow lawyers and I have defended cases no one cares about.
Yes, in spite of what the Internet says, I have gone and sat on routine basis having my favourite cockles and sat among the people at small-time open air Chinese warungs and hear what they say.
And when I come back to the city I tell people – you guys got it wrong.
Let us just look at the data and make a quantitative judgment call on what it means before I make my qualitative analysis:
- Voter turnout was barely above 50%. To me it spells of voter apathy. Voters are not motivated to turn up to the polls. The question then is why?
- The votes for Perikatan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan combined would have mostly defeated BN in almost all seats. What does that tell us? BN is not back in favour from a constituency stand-point. But at the same time there is no Opposition bloc that is viable to form an alternative Government acceptable to all sides of that constituency. So, let us put aside all talks of gerrymandering being a determinant issue.
- Popular vote count has been reported to show BN at about 66%, Pakatan, represented by DAP and Parti Amanah Negara at 25%, while Perikatan, comprising of Bersatu, PAS and Gerakan at 3.85%. Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA) garnered 3.4% and PKR, which contested using its own symbol was at 1.4%.
To me this data tells me that BN maintained its voter-base and they came out to vote.
The youth vote, as a result of Undi18, was practically unimpactful with only 20% of the total voter turnout. DAP could not get its voters out with the same rigour of previous elections.
In spite of that, the Opposition was basically DAP.
As for PKR – let us call it as we see it, it is finished! In its present form, it as an obsolete party. When the fish rots, it rots from the top.
In short, unlike GE14, the Opposition bloc does not have a viable Malay alternative that this segment of the constituency can rally under. There is no leadership that the people can see the Opposition has that it can believe in.
Here, my dear fellow citizens, are my humble analysis and thoughts:
PKR has failed the people, big time!
First of all, none of this is unexpected for people like me. We knew the demographics that will turnout and why. Those who turned out are relatively hardcore political party sympathisers.
It is not an endorsement of former UMNO president Datuk Seri Najib Razak or his successor Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.
It is just that UMNO will deliver to its core base of voters that still feel they need the protection of Malay political supremacy to ensure their wellbeing and survival.
The same goes for the DAP. The party supporters turned out. Who did not were those majority from all walks of life non-Malays who has now lost hope and feel helpless about the future and what it holds for them and their families.
The elephant in the room is PKR; many still refuse to recognise that the party has lost its way, its credibility and its soul.
Two state elections now have shown PKR the door. Historically speaking, PKR came into existence due to two factors:
- The mirage that it is a reformist party led by their then-imprisoned leader, former deputy prime minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. Unfortunately, that particular image has been found to be false as soon as it gained power. Its leader is and was nothing more than an UMNO warlord who lost a power-struggle and paid a price of it. The thirst of being numero uno was all that mattered for the leader and the warlords within PKR. It was not that Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad was the sole reason for the collapse of the Pakatan Government as PKR supporters like to point out to deflect the blame. It was greed for power in the “UMNO-DNA” within Pakatan that did the deed. And that “DNA” was and still is leading PKR.
- PKR is now the Semangat 46, with the facade of a multi racial political party. Imagine a party with so much infrastructure and money, with their so-called pragmatists has been saying to win elections, cannot even muster 2% of the popular vote. PKR is as good as unknown independents that they scoff at as being spoilers in an election, a non-factor and yet still wants to smugly hold the mantle of the Opposition leadership. What leadership? It cannot even hold its own party together.
So now, where does the nation go from here? We are now going to be saddled with the return of an incompetent and corrupted BN, with a theocratic partner in the name of PAS. The country is on the road to doom and yet people did not turn out to vote. Why?
I think we need to stop talking of the past. The 1Malaysia Development Board (1MDB) scandal is being dealt by the court. If we do not correct the future, even that will be for nothing. The fact that someone went to jail for losing the UMNO power struggle does not make him a reform idol or the hope of a nation, and the people has now spoken – twice. Please go away!
This is something that commentators, political leaders and analysts need to recognise. Elections are not about the past. It is about the future. It is about having HOPE for the future.
People turn up to vote when they are hopeful for the change that can happen. They come out early and wait in line in the hot sun clinging on HOPE. – March 14, 2022
Siti Kasim is a lawyer-activist and a founding member of Gerak Independent. This article first appeared on her Facebook.
The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Focus Malaysia.
Pic credit: Benar News
