FOR the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional (PH-BN) coalition that forms the unity government at Federal level, it will only need to win another seven seats from the current 10 to wrest control of the 32-member Terengganu State Legislative Assembly in the Aug 12 state poll.
But this is easier said than done. On the ground, it appears that the green wave created by PAS in the East Coast state is still very strong. A random check with the people on the ground shows that PAS will win hands-down.
That is just the gut feeling that people get when speaking to the more outspoken ones. But there are undercurrents which may spring surprises for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s unity government
The dissatisfaction of the people will not be expressed out openly for fear of repercussions. FocusM spoke to some of them, and the signs appear good for the unity government to win Terengganu.
A number of them do not like Perikatan Nasional (PN) chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin especially over his alleged accusations that the unity government is being run by non-Malays.
These are PAS members who were formerly supporters of Anwar during the era of Pakatan Rakyat (PR) when the well-respected Tok Guru Nik Aziz Nik Mat was still in control of PAS. They also feel that Kedah Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor is too vexatious in his speeches.
For that reason, PN knows that it will have an uphill battle with its own logo in Terengganu that it has decided to use the PAS flag instead for the state election campaign due to the high acceptance of PAS politics in the state.
However, people in Terengganu have taken cognisance that a vote for PAS is a vote for PN and Muhyiddin.
From villain to hero
The other factor that may cause a swing of votes is the way how twice former premier Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad used his Proklamasi Melayu to ride on the PAS’ polemics just the way he had ridden on the PH waves in 2018.
Although they are not supporters of Ibrahim Mahmud, the Memali incident on Nov 19, 1985 is still fresh on their minds.
They noted that back then, PAS state commissioner for Terengganu Tan Sri Hadi Awang had claimed in 1981 that Dr Mahathir-led UMNO had was kafir (infidel) therefore, it was jihad to fight against UMNO. But now, Dr Mahathir himself is painted as the hero in PAS.
They also remember that these claims by Hadi had caused a serious rift in the Malay Muslim community, especially in Besut where the Malay communities were at odds against each other to the point that they were having separate communal prayers – one for UMNO and another for PAS congregations.
With the mix-and-match with former UMNO leaders such as Muhyiddin and Dr Mahathir, they say there is no difference with Anwar’s unity government. “At least, Anwar stays true to his Islam,” one of them confided with FocusM.
Whether PH-BN will be able to win the additional seven seats from the current 10 it won in the 2018 state election to form the next state government is something that is worth watching.
Capitalising on fence-sitters
This is where independents and smaller parties such as MUDA can be the kingmakers when there is a tie between the two coalitions.
However, in Terengganu, MUDA only has one candidate Luqman Long (its information chief) to contest against incumbent Ahmad Shah Muhamed (PN/PAS) and Armi Irzan Mohd (BN) for the state constituency of N14 Bandar. This will not make much of a difference in Terengganu.
It is likely that under current political climate, MUDA’s chances of winning the Bandar constituency is very slim given that voters will choose either one of the two coalitions.
Although Ahmad Shah by being the caretaker deputy chairman of the local government, housing, health and environment may have the upper hand over MUDA, the unity government may yet see votes swinging towards PH-BN in Bandar and other marginal seats if the alliance work hard enough.
Based on last state election in 2018, the total number of votes for BN and PH exceeded 55% of the total votes. Both parties must work closely to garner all the votes that they can by capitalising on fence-sitters and disgruntled PAS supporters.
Despite the fact that Bandar has become a PAS stronghold after the death of Barisan Nasional’s Datuk Razali Ismail in November 2008, the shift in votes towards PAS candidate Raja Kamarul Bahrin Shah Raja Ahmad was the result of PAS riding on Anwar’s Reformasi wave in the 2013 general election.
Raja Kamarul later switched to Amanah following a break-up from the ulama faction in PAS but to these PAS supporters, Anwar is still the key to a better Malaysia.
All the while, Bandar has been seen a flip between BN and PAS, meaning voters can switch between BN and PAS. Therefore, chances of PH-BN seizing the Bandar constituency are good considering that – unlike previous government under BN – Anwar has adopted his “Madani” approach to win hearts of the Malay Muslim majority by helping to resolve the people’s woes in the PAS-controlled states.
Although PAS won a two-thirds majority in the 2018 state poll, it will face an uphill battle with the PH-BN coalition that is more open to development especially in the tourism industry. – Aug 2, 2023
