THE recent Sungai Bakap by-election result was not surprising in that it follows the trend of by-election results post GE15 where the incumbent party retained the seat.
At the same time, however, the results were also surprising in that the margin of victory for the incumbent Perikatan Nasional (PN)-PAS was larger than expected.
The increase in the support for PN was driven by a small increase in its overall support and more importantly, a significant decline in the non-Malay turnout.
The many missteps in the PH/BN campaign exacerbated the already challenging political and economic landscape for the unity government at the national level.
If the key parties within the Madani government do not heed these warning signals, these trends will likely worsen with the point of no return likely to be crossed well before 16th General Election (GE16).
At a glance, the winning majority increased from 1,563 during the 2023 six-state election to 4,267 in favour of PN while the support for PN increased from 52.3% to 58.1% while turnout fell by 13.4% from 76.8% to 63.5%.
One of the key highlights from this by-election is the much larger drop in the non-Malay turnout compared to the Malay turnout.
The estimated Malay and non-Malay turnout in 2023 were 78% and 73% respectively while the estimated Malay and non-Malay turnout in 2024 were 76% and 46% respectively or the estimated Malay turnout fell by 2% while that of non-Malays fell by a massive 27% from 2023 to 2024.
It was always going to be an uphill task for PH to win back the Sungai Bakap state seat from PN right from the start of the campaign because of the following reasons:
- The challenge to counter the narrative of rising costs of living in the post COVID-19 landscape under the unity government;
- The poor communications with regards to policy direction of the unity government; and
- The tough reality that there are more issues for the opposition to attack the unity government compared to the positive outcomes which the government can claim credit for.
The battle was made harder during the campaign because of:
- The inability of the government to effectively explain the reasons for the introduction of the targeted diesel subsidy;
- The incessant politicisation by the opposition of the Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) privatisation exercise involving a minority share by Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) which was acquired by Blackrock; and
- The unfortunate use of derogatory remarks by PKR elections campaign director Rafizi Ramli against the opposition and the unnecessary playing up of the differences in academic qualifications of the PH versus the PN candidate.
The dramatic fall in the non-Malay turnout reflected the growing disappointment among the Chinese and Indian community towards the unity government over unfilled promises and poor performance amidst an uncertain economic landscape.
The poor handling of the Dual Language Program (DLP) and the matriculation-related issues also likely contributed to this sense of unhappiness.
The lower turnout as a protest vote among the non-Malays and the slight shift in the non-Malay vote towards PN should serve as a warning sign to both PH and UMNO.
If this trend continues and cannot be reversed before GE16, a sizeable number of marginal seats won by PH in GE15 and some of the seats which UMNO are hoping to hold on to via an electoral pact with PH may be lost to PN.
Will Sungai Bakap be a positive wake-up call for the unity government? Time will tell but I am not particularly optimistic at this point. – July 10, 2024
Former DAP MP for Bangi Dr Ong Kian Ming was also the deputy international trade and industry minister during the Pakatan Harapan (PH) administration (July 2018-February 2020). He is currently the Pro-Vice Chancellor of Taylor’s University.
The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Focus Malaysia.
Main image credit: Abang Abidin Ismail/Facebook
