MALAYSIA’s passenger traffic reached an 85% recovery (domestic: 79%, international: 91%) in Dec-24, ending the year with an overall recovery rate of 89% (domestic: 85%, international: 93%).
“We consider this to be well within our expectations, as it accounts for 95% of our projected full-year target,” said MIDF Research (MIDF) in the recent Sector Update Report.
Last year’s load factor rose to 80%, up 2.8 percentage points from calendar year 2023 (CY23).
Air connectivity grew +6.1% in CY24, with 12 new airlines, 16 resuming services, and connections to 24 new destinations.
The international sector’s traffic recovery continued to outpace the domestic sector, with significant growth observed in China, Indonesia, and the Middle East.
Moreover, airline seat capacity for CY24 showed an +11.4% year-on-year (yoy) increase despite ongoing supply chain disruptions affecting aircraft and engine parts.
The number of airlines in Malaysia has expanded to 79 in CY24, compared to 69 in CY19.
MAHB is reportedly targeting 25 new airlines over the next two years, with British Airways set to begin operations in Apr-25.
Local airlines are proactively addressing supply chain challenges by optimising costs, maintenance schedules, and supplier contracts, with these issues expected to be eased over time.
“This year, we project passenger traffic to reach 109.1mil, representing a +4.0% recovery above 2019 levels,” said MIDF.
This aligns with the mid-range of MAVCOM’s forecast of 105.8mil to 112.9mil passengers. The domestic sector is expected to catch up, with airlines projected to increase capacity by +15.8% yoy in CY25.
This year’s passenger traffic forecast faces key downside risks, including delays in AirAsia Malaysia’s fleet reactivation, disruptions in aircraft deliveries, and persistent supply chain challenges. At present, MIDF does not have a top pick for the sector. —Jan 22, 2025
Main image: Malaysia Airlines
