THE decision to lift the Movement Control Order (MCO), which is currently in its third phase, must be carefully made and directly communicated to the public, says the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER).
MIER Health Financing Group member Kahlil Anwar said the decision should be based on scientific data.
“The thing about epidemics is that you cannot predict what happens next; there may suddenly be a new cluster that has not been anticipated.
“The government needs to take a proactive approach by looking at the long-term and the immediate requirement of getting certain businesses back into the public domain, as well as protecting vulnerable communities,” he told an online press conference on the MIER National Economic Outlook 2020/2021 Report.
Kahlil said during the first phase of the MCO, the daily increase in new cases was at 10.7%, and it declined to 4.31% during the second phase and subsequently fell further to the current 1.31%.
On the Covid-19 trajectory, MIER chairman Tan Sri Dr Kamal Salih said if the plateauing of new cases is maintained until April 28, it could presage the beginning of the flattening of the curve, signalling positive results from the MCO lockdown strategy.
He said the longer the containment policy (lockdown) is maintained by the government, the deeper the recession will be this year.
“We had previously estimated that any extension of the MCO by two weeks from April 14 could lead to an economic contraction of 2% of the gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
“On the other hand, a premature economic opening (without the strictest of containment protocols), may lead to reinfection risks. This is not an easy trade-off for the government,” he said.
Meanwhile, MIER projected that the third phase of the MCO would be gradually lifted after it ends on April 28, albeit with strict measures such as the six requirements stipulated by the World Health Organisation.
It added that the gradual economic reopening over the next six months would cushion the recessionary impact expected for this year. — April 23, 2020, Bernama
