LAST month saw continued strength, as Malaysia’s passenger traffic recovered to 95%. This brought the recovery rate for quarter three of calendar year 2024 (3QCY24) to 92%.
“This was mainly driven by five new airlines – 9 Air, Air India, AirAsia Cambodia, Lucky Air, and Qingdao Airlines – and an extra 197 weekly flight frequencies compared to 2QCY24,” said MIDF Research (MIDF) in the recent Sector Update Report.
The school break coinciding with public holidays and the Sukan Malaysia (SUKMA) sporting events in Sarawak also contributed to the increase.
The nonASEAN sector fully recovered in Sep-24, showing a slight increase of +1.0% against Sep-19. International passenger movements in Sep-24 were bolstered by new destinations offered by local airlines, with Subang Airport welcoming Scoot Tiger, which commenced daily flights from 1 September 2024.
Passenger numbers from Mainland China in 3QCY24 have notably increased, with weekly flight frequencies +24.8% above those of 3QCY19.
The India sector also achieved a 90% recovery during the same period, highlighting a growing latent demand for travel from India.
“Malaysia’s passenger traffic for the nine months of calendar year 2024 (9MCY24) matches our full-year target at 71%, which we consider consistent with expectations, as 4Q is typically a peak season,” said MIDF.
The domestic sector’s recovery is expected to lag in the 80% range due to limited aircraft availability. Airlines are likely to shift their focus to international routes, where demand is more robust.
The Malaysian Aviation Commission (MAVCOM) has recently revised its passenger traffic target for CY24 to a maximum of 97.6mil passengers (compared to MIDF’s estimate of 98.7mil) from 107.1mil passengers.
“Our expectation of a 94% recovery this year is slightly more optimistic than MAVCOM’s higher-range projected recovery of 93%. We expect a preliminary full recovery next year, projecting a growth of +4% compared to 2019 levels,” said MIDF.
However, potential risks include delays in AirAsia Malaysia’s complete fleet reactivation and further disruptions in aircraft deliveries to local airlines. – Oct 18, 2024
Main image: thestar
