THE truth is that UMNO/BN will lose badly in this 15th General Election (GE15) but on condition that the parties opposing them collaborate closely and are resolute not to split their votes.
But if the parties opposing UMNO/BN clash among themselves because of ego, personal interest, power craze or their leaders being unable to let go of long-time grudges and bitterness among themselves, then UMNO/BN will win despite getting few votes.
Even with a smaller percentage of votes than the 14th General Election (GE14), UMNO/BN still has hope of winning!
But if the party leaders who are up against UMNO/BN are able to reduce a little of their self-centredness for the sake of the country and the people, expect UMNO/BN to drift and drown.
There were already three previous elections starting with the 2008 GE whereby the support for UMNO/BN had started to dwindle till the party/coalition encountered defeat in the 2008 GE.
Ironically, the downfall of UMNO/BN started with an extraordinary victory in the 2004 GE under the leadership of Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi when they gained 63.9% of votes as opposed to the-then Barisan Alternatif (PAS dan PKR) with 24.1% and DAP (9.9%). However, the then Abdullah administration which was “hijacked” by the “fourth floor boys” failed to take full advantage of its huge mandate.
As a result, the 2008 GE saw support for UMNO/BN had fallen to 51.39%, hence losing their two-thirds majority.
In the 2013 GE which was the first for Datuk Seri Najib Razak as Prime Minister, the support for UMNO/BN fell further to 47.38% while the popular votes for Pakatan Rakyat rose to 50.87%.
But because of the split votes among the Opposition parties and the very fact that UMNO/BN benefited from the gerrymandering exercise (delineation of boundaries), UMNO/BN won 133 out of 222 Dewan Rakyat seats while the Opposition obtained 89 seats.
In the 2018 GE, BN finally tasted defeat. Voters’ rage over massive corruption of the UMNO/BN Government under the leadership of Mappadulung Daeng Mattimung Karaeng Sandrobone (sarcastic title for Najib) and a formidable united front by the Opposition has eventually toppled UMNO/BN.
Pakatan Harapan which combined Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad with Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim gained 45.68% of the votes to win 113 seats while UMNO/BN votes fell to 33.80% with 79 seats. PAS which secured 16.90% of votes won 18 seats.
The conclusion is such that if the Opposition continues to split due to ego and vengeance, UMNO/BN are poised to return to power. And as per the desire of its president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, it will be easier to free Najib from prison as well as to stop the court trial of UMNO’s court cluster. That’s the goal of UMNO to push for PRU 15 to be held soonest.
However, the majority of Malaysians reject corruption. They are well-aware that UMNO/BN has been tainted with corruption. But supposedly the Opposition leaders continue their scuffle with each other, public vote against corruption will be futile. UMNO/BN will win while people who go against them will be punished. — Oct 12, 2022
Veteran journalist and blogger Datuk A. Kadir Jasin was a former member of UMNO and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (BERSATU).
The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Focus Malaysia.
Main photo credit: Malaysiakini
