AS Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim successfully secured investment commitments amounting to RM40.6 bil (US$8.6 bi) from his two-day visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), pollster Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) has predicted another piece of good news for the unity government: the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional (PH-BN) alliance should be able to defend the Pelangai state seat in today’s (Oct 6) by-election.
This comes about as BN holds the advantage in four voting districts which are also BN strongholds, namely Machis, Sungai Gapoi, Telemong and Sungai Perdak in addition to three FELDA settlements in the constituency (Sungai Kemasul, Felda Chemomoi and Sungai Kemahal).
In the best-case scenario, BN candidate Datuk Amizar Abu Adam (main pic) from UMNO is expected to win two-thirds of the votes cast and in the worst-case scenario with a majority of 10% vote difference.
“The best projection for BN is to topple PN with an advantage of 33% of the vote count with the expectation that BN will get 64% of the vote and PN will get 31% of the vote,” IDE pointed out in a media statement.
“The lowest projection is that BN will obtain a 10% difference in votes with PN due to the percentage of turnout and the shift of Perikatan Nasonal (PN) votes to BN. Even then, BN can still narrowly win over PN.”
However, IDE predicted that turnout in the Pelangai by-election will drop from the 77.1% recorded during the 15th General Election (GE15) to around 65%.
At the same time, the pollster also admitted that PN has an advantage among voters under 40 but the group of voters over 50 should remain are strong supporters of BN. The Pelangai state seat has the following demography: Malay (74.3%), Chinese (18.2%) and Indians (7.5%).
BN’s Amizar will square off in a three-corner fight with PN-PAS’ Kasim Samat and independent candidate Haslihelmy DM Zulhasli in today’s by-election which is held following the demise of incumbent Datuk Seri Johari Harun in a plane crash in Bandar Elmina, Shah Alam last month.
In GE15, Johari from BN won with a majority of 4,048 votes by defeating Kasim, Ahmed Wafiuddin (PH) and Isa Ahmad (Pejuang). – Oct 7, 2023
Main pic credit: UMNO Online
