ANALYSTS have dismissed the idea that the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition can win “nearly 20” state seats to garner a simple majority in the 40-seat Penang state legislative assembly.
According to Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Prof Dr Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid and Dr Azmil Tayeb, it was unrealistic for PN to win that many seats in Penang, which has been governed by DAP for three terms now.
The notion was first brought forth by PN chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, who was reported as saying on Saturday (June 17) that the coalition needed “only 21 seats” to win a simple majority, adding that “now it’s almost 20”.
“Even if we take all four parliamentary constituencies where Malays are in the majority or form a significant percentage of the population, you’ll only get 12 state seats there,” Fauzi told FMT.
“If PN is really targeting 20 to 21 seats, it must rely on Gerakan defeating its Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional opponents in Chinese-majority or mixed constituencies. And that can only happen if PH-BN puts up MCA candidates.”
Azmil, meanwhile, opined that the coalition could win 10 Malay-majority seats at most while calling the other mixed or non-Malay-majority seats as “not competitive for PN”.
“PN can boost its chances by appealing to non-Malays, but the possibility of (these voters) supporting PN is slim to none,” he told the news portal.
“PN also has not offered any substantive alternative policies to the current government and is only seen as playing with sentiments, which doesn’t bode well with non-Malays and Malays who are less hung up on identity politics.”
On whether a lower voter turnout at the election would favour PN, Fauzi noted than PH and BN supporters’ disillusionment over the two coalitions working together could see them staying away from the election – a move that could work in PN’s favour.
“But whether it will be enough to deliver crucial seats to PN remains debatable. Gerakan will have to trumpet its past contributions as the party which steered Penang into its present position as an industrial powerhouse,” he added.
Gerakan led the Penang state government between 1969 and 2008.
While Azmil foresees a lower voter turnout for the state elections, he reckoned that it will not have a major impact on the outcome of the polls.
Muhyiddin, in expressing confidence that PN could garner a near-majority win in Penang, also said PN’s win at the upcoming six-state elections could ease the coalition’s takeover of the federal government.
In the 14th general election, Bersatu, then a part of Pakatan Harapan, won four state seats in Penang: Bertam, Seberang Jaya, Sungai Acheh, and Teluk Bahang.
All four assemblypersons later lost their seats under the state anti-hopping law, which remains vacant.
After the political realignment in 2020, which saw Bersatu working with PAS under PN, the coalition now only has one state seat in Penang in the form of Penaga which is held by the Islamist party. – June 20, 2023
Main pic credit: Asia Times
