SPECULATION about an early 15th General Election (GE15) has been gaining momentum in the last few days with Barisan Nasional (BN), especially the UMNO leadership, sensing that the time is right for a victory in the polls.
The Rafizi Ramli factor could be the main trigger for such speculation as the BN feels that Rafizi who has been voted overwhelmingly as the PKR deputy president could turn out to be a catalyst in overcoming the flagging electoral aspirations of PKR and also Pakatan Harapan.
PKR has a membership of more than a million and they will be a force to be reckoned with under a new transformative consolidating leadership. In a couple of weeks, the PKR National Convention will be held and the party election winners will formally assume their posts.
Its president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim will have to do a fine balancing act between the Old Guards and the newcomers so as not to cause a split in the party like how the seeds they sowed had led to the Sheraton Move.
While BN expects divisions in the PKR with this new batch of office bearers, it is also of the opinion that it will be better to opt for general elections before Rafizi and his group gain ground and mount a serious challenge in GE15.
For now, there are disputes and controversies concerning discrepancies in the PKR elections results with some leaders calling for a forensic audit. Unlike the DAP which focuses and wins in mostly Chinese majority constituencies, PKR focuses on Malay majority and multi-racial constituencies – the same target of UMNO and BN nationwide.
As such, UMNO pays more attention to the goings-on in the PKR than the other PH parties.
Beyond Rafizi
The Opposition parties have not be able to form an alliance until now and are in disarray. What better opportunity than this for UMNO to call for an early election knowing that the socio-economic situation domestically could worsen in the months ahead.
There is also no end foreseeable to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict unless a strong government is in place to take effective and pro-active decisions.
‘A strong and stable government’ could be the selling point or electoral platform of BN. UMNO has been gaining strength in the last few months as against a weakening PAS and Bersatu to the extent that it feels that it can go alone in the electoral battle.
The urgency of the ‘court cluster’ is also a trigger for an early GE15. The memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the BN and Opposition which states that a general election cannot be held before July 31 is sure to lead to calls for an early election to settle once and for all political uncertainty and instability that has plagued the country with leadership changes in the last few years.
Parliament can be dissolved any time now as technically it could take more than two months between the dissolution of parliament and the holding of the general elections.
Despite the growing power and threat of UMNO, the opposition parties appear numbed and dumbfounded by their own helplessness in forging an alliance to confront UMNO and BN. The opposition parties stand a better chance only if they forge a united front like they did in GE14.
A united Opposition
Former Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak would rue his decision to call for an election at the last minute as by then the Opposition spearheaded by Tun Mahathir had gained popularity and momentum which saw it winning the hard-fought election.
Election timing is important and could be crucial like what happened in Sri Lanka in 2015 when incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa – despite being in a strong and favourable position after defeating the Tamil Liberation Tigers and ending the civil war – was enticed by an astrologer to hold an immediate presidential election which he unexpectedly lost to contender Maithripala Sirisena.
The astrologer quickly went into hiding and some say fled the country. Najib would have won – 1MDB (1Malaysia Development Bhd) scandal or not – if he had held the general elections a few months earlier before Tun Mahathir and his Bersatu party (despite much reservations from some of the PH leaders) decided to lead the consolidated opposition.
The chain sawing and defacing of Tun Mahathir’s pictures on some public billboards during the campaigning for the GE14 sealed the fate of BN as many voters especially the rural ones were aghast at this dastardly act.
Tun Mahathir – despite all the polemics and controversies – is revered by a large section of the population for his major role in catapulting the nation to progress and prosperity.
In GE15, there will be more new opposition political parties such as Pejuang, Parti Bangsa Malaysia, Gerak Independent and others joining the fray; it will be a free-for-all, hrnce God save the Opposition!
Even Selangor, the PH’s crown jewel could fall into BN hands as both UMNO and PAS could team up together under their Muafakat Nasional banner to take on PH.
Big tent, small tent or no tent, the opposition parties have to come to an understanding or unite for a one on-one electoral confrontation. There are no two ways about it.
If this is not done quickly, then chances are extremely bright that the PH parties will spend the next five years as His Majesty’s Opposition in Parliament! – June 6, 2022
Thomas is a reader of Focus Malaysia.
The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Focus Malaysia.
