FOR many people all over the world, it is indeed a huge relief to see that the uncertainties and sabre-rattling between China and the US over the visit of US Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan has finally ended when she arrived safely there on late Tuesday (Aug 2).
But it is a grave mistake to think so as China still continues its military drills around the Taiwan Straits despite the presence of a US Navy fleet nearby.
And Russia, which in the past had stayed clear of the cross-strait issue, has come out with a statement describing the visit as “purely provocative” act and fully supports China in its dispute with Washington.
“We stand in absolute solidarity with China here. Its sensitivity to this issue is understandable. It is justified. And instead of respecting this, the US is choosing the path of confrontation. It doesn’t bode well,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, adding that Washington’s decision is “regrettable.”
The current siege mentality on both sides actually started on May 23, when Biden angered Beijing by making a blunder in declaring that despite abiding by the ‘One China Policy’, the US would involve its military in any potential conflict between China and Taiwan.
This was taken by China and many analysts as unravelling the decades-long policy of strategic ambiguity with regards to Taiwan independence.
Although the White House swiftly clarified the president’s words did not represent a change to the US’ long-standing recognition of China’s sovereignty over Taiwan, the damage was done.
Under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, the US recognises, but does not endorse, China’s sovereignty over Taiwan. While the act codifies the US’ ‘One China Policy,’ it also authorises informal diplomatic relations with the government of Taiwan, and allows Washington to provide Taipei with enough military support “to enable Taiwan to maintain sufficient self-defence capabilities.”
The act does not guarantee or rule out US military intervention should China threaten to assimilate Taiwan by force.
Instead, it considers any attempt to change Taiwan’s status a threat “of grave concern to the US,” intended to dissuade China from going down that road, and to dissuade Taiwan from issuing a formal declaration of independence.
Earlier last month, authorities in Taipei accused the Chinese military of flying 18 aircraft, including two nuclear-capable bombers, into its air-defence zone.
By July, the issue of Pelosi’s visit took centre-stage culminating in a tense phone call on July 28 between Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, where Xi issued his famous warning for the US not to “play with fire”, and “those who play with fire will eventually get burned”.
On August 1, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the US has warned China is poised to stoke geopolitical tensions around Taiwan, perhaps through military “provocations”, raising the risk of an unintended escalation in Beijing’s row with Washington over Pelosi’s possible visit to the self-governing island.
“China appears to be positioning itself to potentially take further steps in the coming days and perhaps over longer time horizons … could include military provocations, such as firing missiles in the Taiwan Strait or around Taiwan, operations that break historical norms such as large-scale air entry into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone . . . air or naval activities that cross the median line and military exercises that could be highly publicised.”
Saying the speaker has the right to visit Taiwan, and a former speaker of the House has visited Taiwan without incident, alluding to a 1997 trip by Newt Gingrich, Kirby also stressed Washington doesn’t expect a direct attack, but admitted Chinese threats and provocations could trigger a conflict.
He made his comments after Reuters, CNN, and other media outlets reported that Pelosi would visit Taiwan after all, in defiance of China’s warnings of a possible military response.
Actually, one can clearly see it is the US who started all these after perhaps being frustrated with the failure of its own efforts to bring China to its side in the Ukraine war as China still refuses to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and participate in the massive sanction against Russia due to the invasion. – Aug 8, 2022
Jamari Mohtar is the Editor of Let’s Talk!, an e-newsletter on current affair.
The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Focus Malaysia.
Pic credit: Shutterstock
