By Rais Hussin
EVEN with the nationwide movement control order (MCO 3.0) that restricted interstate and inter-district travels, social activities, sports, and education was imposed from May 10 to June 7, it did not slow down the spread of COVID-19 infections.
Hence, the announcement to implement a total lockdown from June 1 to June 14 is a right decision, even though I believe a complete lockdown of 21 days is more appropriate.
The graphs below summarises the worrying dynamic — despite MCO 3.0.
At the same time, we should be cognizant of the epidemiologists’ warning that the number of confirmed cases is lower than the number of actual cases; the main reason for that is testing limitations. Sufficiency of testing is evaluated by test positive rate (TPR).
Science recommends that TPR should remain at least under 5%. Therefore, a TPR value that is too high might indicate either insufficiency of testing or too wide spread of infection in the community. The latter means that no matter how much you increase number of tests, if the spread in the community is too wide, a TPR value under 5% may not be achievable.
According to the dataset provided by the Johns Hopkins University, the data indicate that while Malaysia has significantly increased numbers of tests per day (from about 50,000 in the beginning of April to above 100,000 at the end of May) the TPR still remained above 5% since the beginning of May. This observation strongly points to the possibility of the much wider community spread than what is detected.
The observed daily record-breaking total new cases recently, with the figure as of May 28 at 8,290 indicates an alarming trend. Given no intervention, we might reach 10,000 new daily cases by the end of this week (and the month), nearing 600,000 in total. At the same time, we shall expect to woefully add another 200 to 250 Malaysians to the total death toll within the following three to four days.
We do not know how much more the daily death rate could accelerate, considering the overwhelmed medical system. The healthcare capacity is by itself another powerful indicator of worsening pandemic spread. It remains true that Malaysia’s healthcare facilities have been pushed to the brink, with maximised ICU beds and more patients needing ventilator support.
Above a certain threshold (a combination of infection, death, and recovery rate, healthcare capacity etc.), the debate of lives vs livelihood becomes less balanced, and the issue tips considerably in favour of saving lives. Lockdowns can be considered as a short term “circuit-breaker”. This is evident from the success of MCO 1.0; other less stringent versions of MCOs have been accompanied by numerous cases of non-adherence to standard operating procedures (SOPs).
At EMIR Research, we believe that this situation requires immediate, decisive, data-science driven, constructive and humane intervention.
Targeted MCOs may not work when the virus is already very widespread in the community, at which point a temporary circuit breaker is needed to halt the movement of people simultaneously and therefore, the movement (and transmission) of the virus.
Thus, we thank and welcome the call by the Government yesterday for a total lockdown beginning June 1 until June 14.
However, past experience suggests that slightly longer duration may be needed and therefore, we want to urge policymakers to consider extending the 14-day lockdown to at least 21-days in order to break the current alarming dynamic of COVID-19 spread in Malaysia. Thereafter, it can be a targeted lockdown.
We are aware of the potential socio-economic impacts to individuals, households, and businesses that a full-blown MCO might cause. This is why, unlike MCO 1.0, which was roughly eight weeks before it shifted to a conditional MCO (CMCO), the suggestion herein is only for 21 days, and is precisely why lockdowns must be paired with sufficient social and business safety nets, and other measures such as mass testing and an increase in vaccination pace. – May 29, 2021
Rais Hussin is the president and CEO of EMIR Research
The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Focus Malaysia.
