Letter to editor
BARISAN Nasional (BN) component parties comprising UMNO, MCA and MIC are at an important crossroads with all three fighting for survival.
There is increasing speculation that UMNO may not do well in the six state elections scheduled for Aug 12, hence the so-called BN’s “big brother” will be further weakened.
The MIC and MCA have decided to sit out the election in order to prevent a further drubbing at the hands of the voters. These once powerful political parties are now a shadow of their former selves.
UMNO’s problems were mainly self-made with a problem ridden UMNO having indirectly weakened its coalition partners. Some key component parties have left the BN, most notably Gerakan which has since joined the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition.
I do not see a turnaround for MCA and MIC unless UMNO revives and re-invents itself. A coalition concept will still be valid in the present and future of the country due to the country’s ethnic and religious diversity.
UMNO, MCA and MIC can re-group together in the future under the BN and vie for power in a more competitive democracy alongside Pakatan Harapan (PH), BN and PN.
The situation in the country allows for the future existence of three main political groups – the West Coast parties such as PH, East Coast parties such as PN and BN seeking nationwide support due to its past domination.
In the next constituency delineation, at least 20 -30 more seats could be created from the present 222 due to population increase, thus allowing the coalition to vie for power although the electoral competition could be tight.
Past influence
For the better or worse, UMNO which is undergoing a tough transitional phase is not going to disappear as it has done much for the Malay community. The party could recover by springing some positive surprises despite the odds stacked against it in the state polls.
Much will depend on the number of seats UMNO wins although it should be perceived as having done quite well if it can continue being part of the unity government for the next four plus years.
Much can happen to the party in the interim with new leaders who will help the party re-invent itself and win back the confidence and trust of its members. The main duty of the present leadership is to ensure that the party survives and revives by leveraging the unity government platform.
At the moment, UMNO seems to have the spirit and resources to cope with the present bleak scenario. It is thus in a situation better than the MCA or the MIC. The latter two parties could also attempt a revival in their fortunes like UMNO.
They can request for senatorial seats and be given some government position that will help them to implement some good programmes for their communities to slowly win back their support.
As coalition partners within the unity government, they can demand some influential administrative positions. These parties need not fold up. Politics is the art of the possible and nobody can predict what the future beholds.
The BN could spring to life in the 16th General Election (GE16). Much will depend on the unity government’s success in implementing its manifesto. If it fails to fulfil its reforms and socio-economic agendas, GE16 could be a free for all.
With population increase as in the number of the young voters and constituency delineations to reduce variations in the number of voters will result in at least 20-30 additional parliamentary seats in future elections, Malaysia could have not two but three coalitions, namely PH, PN and BN.
The Sabah and Sarawak coalitions can join any of these groupings to form the government. Coalitions are here to stay and it could be PH and BN or PN and BN that will administer the country in the future.
Much will depend on how well UMNO fares in the state elections overall and if it manages to win a reasonable number of seats, it could also help MCA and MIC have a better future together.
V. Thomas is a Focus Malaysia reader.
The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Focus Malaysia.
