Wall Street posts worst day of 2023 on “higher-for-longer rate” fears

WALL Street posted its worst performance of the year on Tuesday with the main benchmarks ending down as investors interpreted a rebound in US business activity in February to mean interest rates will need to stay higher for longer to control inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 697.1 points or 2.06% to 33,129.59; the S&P 500 lost 81.75 points or 2.00% to 3,997.34; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 294.97 points or 2.5% to 11,492.30.

For the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, it was their third session in a row closing lower, while the decline in the Dow Jones Industrial wiped out its gains for 2023.

The falls came after the S&P Global Purchasing Manufacturer’s index which reflects business activity in the US returned to expansion for the first time in eight months in February. The 50.2 reading – up from 46.8 in January – was buoyed by a robust services sector, according to a survey.

The report added to a recent slew of economic data which has painted a picture of a resilient economy which continues to perform against a backdrop of multiple rate-rises by the central bank in 2022 aimed at tamping down inflation.

With inflation still far from the Fed’s 2% target, and the economy retaining much of its vigour, money market participants have been revising upwards where they see the Fed fund rates peaking – currently at 5.35% in July and staying near those levels throughout the year.

“Today, the realisation is that the Fed is not kidding around about higher for longer, and in fact it might be a little bit higher for a little-to-a-lot bit longer,” said Carol Schleif, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office.

US stocks had an upbeat start to the year after their worst annual showing in more than a decade in 2022 as investors hoped the central bank’s rate-hike cycle was nearing its end. Such positivity makes equity markets susceptible to pull-backs though when data undermines such expectations.

“The market keeps looking for a dovish pivot, and they are just not going to get it,” said Schleif.

Investors will look to the minutes detailing discussion at the Fed’s last policy meeting due out on Wednesday for further clues on attitudes within the central bank on rates.

Among those hit by Tuesday’s widespread declines were big tech stocks with Tesla Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Microsoft Corp and Google-parent Alphabet Inc all falling between 2.1% and 5.3%.

Not helping them was the fact the US benchmark 10-year Treasury notes hit a fresh three-month high.

Higher yields typically weigh on growth stocks whose valuations tend to be based on future profits that are discounted heavily as rates go higher. The semiconductor index was also impacted, dropping 3.3%.

All of the major 11 S&P 500 sectors fell with the consumer discretionary index’s 3.3% decline leading the way.

Volume on US exchanges was 11 billion shares compared with the 11.62 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

The S&P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 57 new highs and 112 new lows. – Feb 22, 2023

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