Will we reach herd immunity or will the pandemic turn into endemic?

By Prof P Ramasamy

 

IT might be too early to say that the COVID-19 pandemic can be controlled by a deft combination of vaccines, their different varieties, social distancing measures, early identification of the virus mutations and others.

It is race against time and maybe even an impending disaster.

Immaterial of the eventual outcome, there is no choice but to take all necessary painful measures to contain the pandemic.

Frankly speaking, the Malaysian economy is in shambles, and the emergency ostensibly introduced to fight the pandemic is nothing but a political measure to shore up the regime.

What started off as an epidemic in China has spread far and wide to be termed as a pandemic.

The question is whether we are confidently approaching the status of herd immunity or facing the dim prospect of rendering the COVID-19 virus as something endemic in society.

The word endemic should not raise alarm bells as the world has its share of infectious diseases that have been largely contained but sporadic occurrences happen here and there.

In other words, we might still reach herd immunity without totally eliminating the scourge of the virus.

Minister of Science and Technology (MOSTI) Khairy Jamaluddin said recently that he was careful in using the term herd immunity as the COVID-19 virus could never be eliminated in the near foreseeable future.

In other words, the situation might turn out to be endemic.

Bumpy roads ahead

He also remarked that he had advised Prime Minister Tan Sri Mahiaddin Yassin to be sensitive about using the cliché herd immunity as such status might not be attained as the virus might become endemic.

Khairy should also made it clear that expunging the term herd immunity is not necessarily a bad thing as it could coexist with the notion of being endemic.

In other words, countries can be on the road to attaining the status of herd immunity provided COVID-19 vaccines are rolled out sufficiently.

We have not done so in Malaysia – at least for the time being taking into consideration the unequal nature of vaccines distribution among rich and poor countries.

Like other divides, the vaccine divide is alarming to say the least.

As COVID-19 mutation spreads, challenges abound in reaching herd immunity. And this is a nightmare in the fight against COVID-19.

Furthermore, the Government has gave the impression to Malaysians that herd immunity could be attained with the sufficient roll out of vaccines.

I am sure Khairy might have talked about herd immunity in the beginning, but now he has changed his tune. Or more specifically, he is careful in the use of the term herd immunity, knowing very well the implications.

As I have said earlier, there is possible coexistence of herd immunity and the situation of an endemic.

I don’t think that both are not mutually exclusive. Coexistence is possible and it might not be bad thing.

The most important consideration is that the majority of the population should be vaccinated.

There can be still herd immunity with the COVID-19 virus being endemic.

Just in the cases of other diseases that have been largely controlled, but sporadic occurrences can be seen.

In the case of the present pandemic, there is possible scenario, I would think very likely, that the COVID-19 virus can be contained to a large extent without being totally eliminated.

This is what is meant by the term endemic.

The COVID-19 virus first became an epidemic, then a pandemic and now the big question is whether it might be rendered endemic? – June 23, 2021

 

Prof P Ramasamy is the Deputy Chief Minister of Penang and Perai state assemblyman.

The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Focus Malaysia.

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