TWO academicians who are political scientists in their own rights. One pessimistic outlook.
This aptly sums up potential outcome of the 36-seat Negeri Sembilan (N9) state election which is in fill swing today (Aug 1).
Apparently renowned political commentator Prof James Chin foresees 50/50 chances of DAP retaining the core seven Chinese seats with even incumbent DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke Siew Fook facing a tough battle to defend Chennah which he previously won in three previous contests (2013, 2018 and 2023).
“Even Chennah is 50/50 but Loke is fighting hard (Loke faces MCA’s Siow Kong Choon in a straight fight),” the inaugural director of the Asia Institute at the University of Tasmania predicted in a recent Facebook post.
BN (Barisan Nasional) will sweep the Malay areas. The MB (Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun) will lose his seat. There will be no PH government on Sunday (Aug 2) morning.
If N9 falls, Melaka will dissolve this coming week.
Chin has earlier attributed his bleak outlook assessment to the fact that “UMNO machinery is working very well with the Moon (his moniker for PAS) machinery at the grassroots level” so much so that “I think the majority of Malay seats will go to UMNO with a few going to Moon”.
“Lots of money is being distributed in Chinese areas. My goodness, it’s a lot,” the senior research associate at Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman’s (UTAR) Tun Tan Cheng Lock Centre for Social and Policy Studies (TCLI) painted on desperation of the ruling Pakatan Harapan (PH) side.
Parallel views
“I’ll leave it to you and those from N9 to say exactly how much. All I can say is that if I were living in those areas, especially around PD (Port Dickson), my Kopi-O money would last for a whole month – or more.”
“(Moreover,) DSAI (Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim) made a strategic mistake by saying “sori” (apologising) to the Indian community. Now they’re even more angry at PH.”
In his empirical projection based on turnout estimates, Taylor’s University’s adjunct professor Dr Ong Kian Ming had on July 27 predicted BN “to win between 23 and 25 state seats” while PH is expected “to win between 11 and 13 state seats with PKR likely to pick up one state seat and the rest being won by DAP”.
As for Chennah, the former DAP lawmaker reckoned the hot seat to be a “too close to call” with Loke who is also the Transport Minister fighting hard “but the anti-DAP and anti-PH sentiment among the Malay community may be too difficult for him to overcome in this 48% Malay constituency”.
This alongside a swing in the 7% of Orang Asli voters of whom many still see BN as their “protector”, may be sufficient to give BN a small margin of victory, according to Ong.
Interestingly, however, the former Bangi MP has earned backlash for his “BN+PN will win 23-25 state seats” projection by DAP loyalists despite “my prediction is based on projection of the likely Malay, Chinese, Indian and Others support for BN, PN and PH as opposed to who I’m supporting or not supporting”. – Aug 1, 2026
