NOV 2025 saw slower exports growth of +7.0% year-on-year (YoY), faster imports growth of +15.8% YoY, and sharply narrower trade surplus of MYR6.1 bil.
“A diversified exports base delivers its benefits amid the US-Malaysia trade deal and overhang in US tariff on semiconductors, currently exempted from US 19% reciprocal tariff,” said Maybank Investment Bank (MIB).
Expect full-year 2025 export and import growth of +5.4% and +5.5%, and trade surplus, followed by +5.0% exports growth, +5.3% imports growth and +MYR142.5 bil trade surplus in 2026.
“Exports growth slowed to +7.0% YoY in Nov 2025, in line with manufacturing exports performance amid the decline in agriculture exports while mining exports picked up,” said MIB.
Manufacturing exports were supported by growth in Electronics & Electrical Products (Nov 2025: +15.0% YoY), Optical & Scientific Equipment (Nov 2025: +33.8% YoY) and Manufactures of Metals (Nov 2025: +8.4% YoY) which offset the declines in Rubber Products (Nov 2025: -25.2% YoY) and Chemicals & Chemical Products (Nov 2025: -14.8% YoY) while Petroleum Products rebounded (Nov 2025: +1.5% YoY).
The decline in agricultural exports was due to lower Palm Oil & Palm-Based Products shipments, while mining exports growth was sustained by Crude Petroleum exports amid continued decline in LNG exports.
Key highlight of the Nov 2025 trade statistics is the benefit of diversified export markets, as shipments to key non-US markets like EU, China+HK and ASEAN helped to counter the volatility in exports to the US this year.
“The US-Malaysia trade deal announced on 26 Oct 2025 should provide some clarity going forward, although we see continued volatile monthly trade figures due to base effects,” said MIB.
Take for example, swings in the “lumpy” capital goods imports, and persistent US tariff uncertainties, particularly the risk of tariff on semiconductors.
Also note that Malaysia’s major exports to the US are currently exempt from the 19% reciprocal tariff, pending US decision which is hoped to be “favourable” following the trade deal. —Dec 22, 2025
Main image: GTL
