MALAYSIANS on the edge of their seats over the prospect that Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang might just become their next prime minister can take a breather for now as it is likely that the PAS president will not helm the country’s top office.
The Islamist party bagged 44 federal seats during yesterday’s (Nov 19) polls – the most any single political party garnered and among the four Perikatan Nasional (PN) component parties too – signifying the increasing prominence of PAS among Malay-Muslim voters and youths.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan said he found it interesting that PAS got the most seats in the 15th General Elections (GE15) in terms of individual parties.
“As I see it, the Malay voters especially put more trust in PAS compared to UMNO/Barisan Nasional (BN), even though the objective of these two parties – to protect the Malays and Islam – is very similar,” he told FocusM.
“Based on how PAS performed in Terengganu, Kelantan, Kedah and most probably Perlis too, PAS, within PN, is the kingmaker right now, not Bersatu,” he added.
PAS won all eight seats in Terengganu and all 14 in Kelantan. In Kedah, on the other hand, PN won 13 seats (losing in just one) and all three seats in Perlis.
The coalition also won 14 out of the 15 state seats in Perlis, which held state and federal polls concurrently yesterday.
However, Azmi does not think Hadi or any soon-to-be-sworn-in MPs from PAS will end up becoming prime minister.
“Even though PAS got the most parliament seats in PN, PN promised and put on paper that Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin is their prime minister of choice.”
Most dominant Malay/Muslim party
What is certain though is that PAS is now the most dominant party for Malay and Muslim voters in Malaysia, replacing UMNO and its splinter party Bersatu, which both did rather poorly compared to PAS in GE15 (PAS: 44 seats/UMNO: 26/Bersatu: 28).
“PAS is way ahead of Bersatu and even further ahead when compared to UMNO,” said Azmi.
He added that even though only around 60% of the Malays voted in GE15 – lower than the 90% of votes registered among non-Malays – the majority of the 60% chose PAS to protect their rights.
Similarly, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA) coalition has also failed to garner the Malay/Muslim vote despite touting itself as the best bet for the community.
It wrested not a single seat during GE15, and Mahathir himself lost his Langkawi seat and RM10,000 deposit, a shocking development for the two-time former prime minister and nonagenarian.
“It was devastating indeed for Langkawi especially,” said Azmi, “but no surprise there as it was always going to be an uphill journey for GTA and Pejuang (Mahathir’s party) right from when they were formed, especially after the Johor state elections in March and rightly so now after GE15.”
So, given PN’s reluctance to work with Pakatan Harapan (PH), PH determined against working with BN and kingmaker Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) not wanting to work with PH, which coalitions will come together to form a government?
“PN, because of PAS’ dominance, will never work with PH, so I guess the most probable permutation is either PH plus the two Borneo states will get a 112-seat majority or PN and BN (a surprise there!) plus Sabah and Sarawak will work together and go well beyond 112 MPs,” said Azmi.
He added that PN must include BN if they want to form a federal government because they have “no other choice”; Warisan only won three seats and there are just two independents who won, too minimal in support to make an actual difference. – Nov 20, 2022
Main photo credit: Utusan
