By Jamari Mohtar
If there is an epitaph for 2020 which is coming to a close, it would sound something like this:
“Unprecedentedness was everywhere. It reliably eluded comprehension; past and present lenses illuminated the familiar, thus obscuring the original by turning the unprecedented into an extension of the past, contributing to the normalisation of the abnormal, which made coming to terms and fighting the unprecedented even more of an uphill struggle.”
All the major events of the year can be summarised as an unprecedented year requiring unprecedented measures, along with unprecedent changes in mindset to cope and survive the unprecedented year.
The year started with the COVID-19 coronavirus rearing its ugly head in China. From an epidemic there, it became a pandemic when more countries were infected and impacted by the lethal virus.
Then words like lockdown, movement control order (MCO), close contact, contact tracing and social distancing became household terms.
At the time, Malaysia was exposed to the virus in the early months of the year, the daily infection was in the region of one to two digits.
By February, it looked the battle against the virus had been won – when daily infection cases were at zero for a number of days.
This led to a complacency in the form of dithering over whether the country’s borders should be closed, and politicking went on an overdrive, resulting in a political crisis that ended up with a new Government taking office.
During this political crisis in late February, which was precipitated by the Sheraton Move, no one in the Government (or rather a Government of one person in the form of an interim Prime Minister) monitored the huge religious gathering of the Jemaah Tabliqh, which by the time the new Government took office in March, had the Covid-19 virus launched a second wave of attack, causing the daily infection numbers back to two-digit and soon, three-digit figure.
By the time the Tabligh cluster had winded down and ended on July 8, when no new infection was reported for 28 days in the cluster, a total of 42,023 individuals from this cluster had been screened, and 3,375 positive cases were detected, accounting for 39% of the total number of positive COVID-19 cases in Malaysia then.
To combat the second wave of the COVID-19, the new Government introduced bold moves – complete closure of the country’s borders and had the MCO put into effect on March 18 for two weeks, confining people to their homes and urging them to go out only when necessary, such as buying essential items in an attempt to flatten the curve.
The Government also ensured the healthcare system would not be overwhelmed by converting many hospitals into COVID-19 zone, creating more quarantine facilities and rope in many frontliners including retired nurses and doctors.
Even though the MCO crippled the economy, costing as much as RM2.4 bil a day, there was a newfound solidarity among the rakyat in supporting the Government in its fight against the deadly virus, as they saw the Government was doing its best to balance lives and livelihood.
There were no protests when houses of worship were all closed during the MCO – a sharp contrast in the US and Europe where things like a lockdown and even the standard operating procedure (SOP) to put on a mask were the subject of protests there, worsening further the state of the global economy.
On the economic front, with the perfect storm of a slowing economy and the trade spat between US and China entrenched in late 2019, and the emergence of COVID-19, Malaysia was one of the few countries that managed to record a positive GDP growth of 0.7% during the first quarter of the year.
But with the MCO being extended until early May, with only essential economic sectors allowed to operate, the stage was set for a deep contraction of 17.1% of the GDP during the second quarter.
To cushion the economic, the Government announced a stimulus Prihatin package of RM250 bil in March – the biggest and most generous stimulus ever announced by the Government.
An automatic moratorium of six months on loans for all, beginning in April was given. This was followed by the stimulus package for the small and medium enterprises (SME) amounting to RM10 bil which featured, among others, a refined wage subsidy programme and incentives for companies to embrace digitalisation as the new norm of doing business.
On May 5, the economy was given a boost when the MCO was changed to the conditional MCO with the gradual opening of the economy.
Finally, when the daily infections were back to the two- and one-digit figures in early June, the recovery MCO was introduced on June 10 where more sectors of the economy were opened up.
Things seemed to be a bit rosy by early September when the rise in unemployment was arrested throughout the months of May up to September, with the manufacturing production index exceeding 50% for much of June up to September, culminating in a contraction of GDP for the third quarter to a much smaller 2.7%.
However, things started to unravel in late September when politicking reared its ugly head, causing political instability.
First through a power grab that led to a snap state election being called in Sabah. At the federal level, it was Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim playing the numbers game by claiming the Government had fallen because he had the formidable and convincing Parliamentary majority, supported by statutory of declarations allegedly signed by MPs.
The fallout from the Sabah state election was the emergence of a third wave of COVID-19 infections beginning in late September which still bedevils the nation till today with daily infections in the region of a four-digit figure, and cumulative infections breaching the 100,000 mark as of last week.
This third wave also features higher daily infections in some states, particularly Sabah, Selangor and Kuala Lumpur causing a benign conditional MCO to be reimposed, costing the country about RM300 mil a day.
Things came to a critical situation when the Government decided to advise the King to declare a national emergency, which was rejected by the monarch, who in turn urged the people to cast aside all their differences, and help the Government in its fight against COVID-19 and rejuvenate the economy, and for Parliamentarians to pass Budget 2021.
Meanwhile at the economic level, the stimulus pertaining to moratorium and wage subsidy had come to an end by September and there was a concern that all these will result in more sufferings to the people, leading EMIR Research and many others urging the Government to practise the economics of empathy, by extending the moratorium and wage subsidy for another three to six months with immediate effect.
This became highly politicised when in anticipation of Budget 2021, political parties joined in the chorus of extending the moratorium and wage subsidy, with a new demand for a lump sum Employees Provident Fund (EPF) savings to be allowed to be withdrawn without any conditions as a prerequisite for their support of Budget 2021.
But the Government dithered on all these suggestions and decided to put them all together under Budget 2021 as a sign of a bipartisan budget, which means implementation will only be done next year, if the budget was passed.
As presentation of Budget 2021 on Nov 6 approaches, politicking went on an unprecedentedly fever pitched level, resulting in a downgrading of Malaysia’s sovereign debt by Fitch Ratings from A- to BBB+.
When Budget 2021 was finally passed along partisan line on Dec 15, the country finally breathed a sigh of relief, putting the Opposition in a defensive position.
A postscript to the year came when it was announced that Malaysia will get its COVID-19 vaccine in February, but still generating a mild politicking in the form of why did the country get the vaccines two months later than neighbouring Singapore. – Dec 30, 2020
Jamari Mohtar is Director of Media & Communications at EMIR Research, an independent think-tank focused on strategic policy recommendations based upon rigorous research.
The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Focus Malaysia
