ACCORDING to the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), the total industry volume (TIV) in Aug-25 reached 73,041 units, at +4.3% month-on-month (MoM).
The MoM growth was fuelled by better stock availability from higher July production, Merdeka promotions, and new model launches. On the production front, total industry production slipped to 69,111 units.
“Year-to-date TIV fell to 516,862 units or -3.8% year-on-year (YoY), tracking in line with our forecast at 65% of our full-year projection,” said MBSB Research.
Tan Chong’s losses were as expected, with its weak domestic operations partly offset by stronger Vietnam sales from GAC Motor. Sales may improve with upcoming new launches, but losses are likely to persist amid stiff competition.
MBM Resources delivered results in line, with after-sales supporting its motor trading & assembly division despite flat vehicle sales. Its Perodua associate also posted a higher contribution, benefiting from a weaker JPY even as volumes softened.
In contrast, Bermaz Auto posted results well below expectations, dragged by weaker sales from ageing models, wider associate losses, and softer margins.
Sales should improve with the recent launch of the all-new Mazda CX-60 and Mazda 3 1.5L, but we now expect margin recovery to take longer, leading us to cut earnings further and lower our target price as detailed in Table 3.
Under the BUDI95 programme, effective September 30, 2025, Malaysians can buy RON95 at RM1.99/l for up to 300 litres monthly, while non-citizens pay RM2.60.
This is mildly positive for TIV as fuel costs remain manageable and may steer buyers toward fuel-efficient cars to stay under the cap.
Separately, TIV should be supported by new model launches and firmer sentiment following the recent OPR cut.
With open market value-based excise duty for complete knockdowns commencing in Jan-26 and complete build up EV tax exemptions expiring this year, some frontloading of purchases is anticipated in the remainder of the year.
Overall, TIV is projected to moderate this year, given the strong base, with our current year 2025 forecast at 792k units (-3.0% yoy), closely matching MAA’s estimate of 780k units (-4.5%yoy). —Sept 21, 2025
Main image: AutoCango
